Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
