Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
